Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
